Gov. Tina Kotek didn’t catch the Democratic “blue wave” that rolled over Oregon and the nation last week.
While she was easily reelected, every Oregon county as of midday Nov. 9 had voted more Republican in the governor’s race than it did in the 2024 presidential race, according to an OJP analysis. At that time, 92% of votes had been counted.
Oregon’s gubernatorial result differs sharply from results in the eight other states where an incumbent Democratic governor ran for reelection this November.
At a Nov. 6 news conference, OJP asked Kotek to speculate on why she underperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris with Oregon voters. “I have no idea,” she said, adding, “My job is to get back to work and make sure Oregon has what it needs.”
U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley, on the other hand, exceeded Harris’ 2024 percentages in all 36 Oregon counties when he won reelection Nov. 3.
Analysts often compare midterm results with the most recent presidential race to gauge shifts in voter and party enthusiasm. Comparing this year’s race between Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan with their 2022 contest is problematic, however, because that race included unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson, a moderate former Democratic state senator who won 8.6% of the vote.
In last week’s national blue wave, every other Democratic governor running for reelection won with a larger share of the vote in their state than Harris captured in 2024. Not so in Oregon. Kotek has 53.3%, 2 percentage points below Harris’ 55.3%.
Lee Shaker, a political communication professor at Portland State University, attributed Kotek’s weaker showing to her status as a polarizing figure, combined with Oregon’s struggling economy.
“People are looking around and thinking that the state’s not going in the direction they want it to go in, and holding her accountable,” Shaker said.
The state’s economic struggles do not rest solely with Kotek, Shaker added, but voters find it harder to follow the “longer causal chain” of federal tariff changes.
Johnson, who represented Columbia County in Salem for 20 years, said Kotek’s underperformance reflects voter dissatisfaction with conditions in Oregon.
“People want good schools,” Johnson said. “They want lower taxes. They want economic development opportunities. They want to see government employees come back to work and serve them.”
The governor’s office has been held by Democrats since the 1986 election, when Neil Goldschmidt defeated Republican Norma Paulus. That 40-year winning streak meant Drazan faced a “structural disadvantage,” Shaker said.
In a year when the political tide lifted Democratic governors above Harris’ 2024 waterline, Kotek’s was the boat that took on water.
Still, for a Republican to win, Shaker said, “you’re going to have to make up tens of thousands of votes.”
Oregon Journalism Project
This story was produced by the Oregon Journalism Project, a nonprofit investigative newsroom for the state of Oregon. OJP seeks to inform, engage and empower Oregonians with investigative and watchdog reporting that makes a significant impact at the state and local levels. Its stories appear in partner newspapers across the state. Learn more at oregonjournalismproject.org.