Energy demand from data centers and rollbacks in federal clean energy policies knocked Oregon off track to meet its climate goals. Now, Oregon energy officials are sharing ideas to meet those targets.
The Oregon Department of Energy on Monday shared 48 possible “gap measures” that could help the state reach 2035 and 2050 greenhouse gas pollution reduction targets. Oregonians have just less than two weeks to comment, provide more ideas and propose scenarios that could impact forecasted pollution levels. Officials will model the impact of each measure and in June, publish a report showing which actions could have the greatest effect.
Then-Gov. Kate Brown established Oregon’s targets to reduce planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions via executive order in 2020. It requires state leaders and agencies to take action and adopt policies to get Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions to 45% below 1990 levels by 2035 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.
Until recently, the state was on track to meet those targets, according to 2023 energy department modeling. But in October, department officials reported that given the massive rise in energy demand for data centers and Trump administration rollbacks of federal clean energy policies and fuel economy standards for cars, the state wouldn’t hit its 2035 goals until 2037.
Alan Zelenka, assistant director for energy planning and innovation at Oregon’s energy department, said the 2023 report didn’t model the impacts of data centers on statewide energy demand.
“It’s kind of a good metric of how fast this conversation is going with data centers, and how fast the AI conversation is going — when we were talking about this two and a half years ago it wasn’t even in the conversation, now it’s a big part of it,” he said. “We’ve seen growth in data centers, but the explosion is going to happen in the next five to 10-year period. We’ve got over 150 data centers in Oregon already.”
Zelenka said it’s likely the impacts of clean energy rollbacks from the Trump administration will be temporary on Oregon’s long term climate planning and pollution targets.
“I say that with confidence, because climate change is going to get worse and we’re going to see the impacts of that against the rhetoric coming out of the federal administration,” he said. “Secondly, it’s the economics that are driving this. The cheapest resources we have are solar, wind and batteries, not nuclear power, not gas, not coal.”
Closing the gap
Among the ideas for closing the gap are reducing livestock methane emissions, reducing the use of nitrogen-based fertilizer, adopting more hydrogen-fueled trains and ships, getting electric heat pumps and water heaters in all newly built homes by 2045 and reducing Oregonians’ beef and pork consumption 50% by 2050, shifting instead to seafood.
“Some of them are more ambitious in terms of their goals, but this is also sort of why we’re looking for feedback over the next couple of weeks,” said Jamshed Suntoke, head of the energy department’s Climate Team. “We’re looking for experts from across the state to weigh in.”
Any action that would require changes to state laws or require bigger budgets for state agencies will be up to lawmakers. Most of the options build on existing climate programs and policies, Zelenka said, and many build on the state’s new 25-year Energy Strategy. That strategy prioritizes investment in building, transportation and industrial energy efficiency, as well as growing existing clean energy infrastructure, instead of massive new investments in new energy infrastructure, such as nuclear reactors.
Energy department officials solicited the 48 ideas during the fall from staff at other state agencies. They also received hypotheticals to model, such as: what would happen if far fewer people buy electric vehicles than previously predicted during the next 10 years? They invited the public to submit possible future scenarios for modeling as well.
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