Oregon’s Douglas fir forests may lose up to half their value as rising wildfire danger and volatile timber prices force plantation owners to harvest trees decades earlier than optimal, according to new research from Oregon State University.
The study shows that under worst-case scenarios, the most economically sensible harvest age would drop to just 24 years — less than half the 65-year optimal rotation in areas without significant fire risk.
“Basically, under high wildfire risk that rises with stand age, every year you wait to harvest you’re rolling the dice,” said Mindy Crandall, an associate professor in the OSU College of Forestry and co-author of the study.
The accelerated harvest timeline would significantly reduce long-term timber revenue, carbon storage capacity and wood quality — presenting major challenges for Oregon’s $18 billion timber industry.
Douglas fir accounts for roughly 65% of Oregon’s timber stock in a state where forests cover nearly half of its 96,000 square miles. Beyond their economic value, these forests provide critical ecosystem services including wildlife habitat and carbon sequestration.
The research, led by doctoral student Hsu Kyaw under supervision of Crandall and assistant professor Andres Susaeta, found that traditional forest valuation methods based on fixed timber prices fail to account for the financial uncertainty created by fluctuating markets and increasing wildfire danger.
“By integrating both wildfire risk and timber price volatility into forest management models, policymakers can design smarter tax systems, insurance programs and carbon market incentives that adapt to the changing conditions we are seeing and that are expected to worsen,” Susaeta said.
The researchers identified several strategies that could help strengthen forest resilience and economic returns. Fuel reduction programs such as thinning and prescribed burns can lower fire risk and allow landowners to extend harvest cycles, capturing higher returns from mature timber.
The study also suggests that improved salvage logging operations and wildfire-adjusted insurance programs could help recover post-fire losses and stabilize landowner income.
While higher carbon prices can encourage longer rotations and boost land values, those benefits diminish under high wildfire risk. The researchers recommend expanding carbon offset programs to include wildfire mitigation and salvage credits to better align climate goals with economic incentives.
Susaeta emphasized that financial risk considerations have an even bigger impact on landowner decisions than potential salvage value, particularly for those who are cautious about risk.
“Overall, our work underscores that managing forests under climate uncertainty requires integrating economic and ecological risks,” Susaeta said. “By balancing wildfire resilience with market adaptation, forest policies can better protect both the environment and rural livelihoods.”
The findings were published in the journal Forest Policy and Economics.
(This story was based on a news release by Steve Lundeberg, Oregon State Universitiy news and research writer)